Into the Looking Glass (Day Two): MBA-CREF Opening General Session with Paul Begala (of CNN) and Tucker Carlson (of MSNBC)
Yesterday (Sunday) at the 2009 MBA-CREF convention was like every Sunday in past conventions, where the "hard core" attendees participated in committee meetings addressing industry issues, while the "hard core" loan originators played golf.
The late afternoon and evening was full of the usual receptions. However, since there are no longer any investment banks, the parties were muted and without live music (past conventions featured The Eagles and The Steve Miller Band - usually at parties hosted by the investment banks).
But, this is the "new" economy and it controlled the day on Sunday:
- the industry issues were evident to everyone at the meetings, which were the most frank, direct and pointed discussions in my years of attending the Sunday meetings (we'll post on those issues in a separate entry)
- it was even a sunny day for the golfers
Right now, I'm sitting in the huge meeting room for the opening session. Last year it was a standing room only session. Today, there are extra seats.
This is the first time that I've done a "live" blog. So, here we go, with the opening session of the 2009 MBA-CREF convention.
Both John Courson, President of the MBA, and David Kittle, Chairman of the MBA (and EVP of Stonegate Mortgage Corporation), both gave opening remarks. Courson's remarks focused on the MBA's role in the real estate finance industry, and the liquidity crisis (using by analogy the King Kong movie). KIttle focused on the opportunities in the crisis, including MBA's proposals being pushed on the Hill, in the regulatory agencies and with the new administration. In particular, Kittle mentioned the recent white paper issued by the MBA on the liquidity crisis (specifically the secondary mortgage market and the role of the government-sponsored enterprises).
Now for Tucker Carlson of MSNBC and Paul Begala of CNN . . . .
(Note: both Paul and Tucker freely admitted, during the time for questions from the floor, that they do NOT understand specific issues of importance to the mortgage lending industry, such as "risk-based capital" and similar issues. Their talk is from a higher-level perspective.)
Paul: for Americans, a "long time" is a 10 week session of American Idol. This economy will take a much longer period of time to correct. Obama is focusing of achieving a result, while the media (and Americans) currently are focusing on the process. There is a difference.
Tucker: It is important to Obama that the process for change include Republicans.
Paul: Obama has something special - look at the states that he carried (such as Virginia). Look how "far" he has come - he has the ability to inspire.
Tucker: Obama will NOT be able to live up to the extraordinary expectations. Remember, I have a deranged cousin who supports Obama! When Obama fails to shoulder the expectations, and no living person will be able to do so, my cousin will fall over dead. However, it is misleading to suggest to Americans that anyone person could solve this - and Obama should not have suggested that he could.
Paul: But recall that in his speech in Chicago on election night, he gave a very somber speech. He is trying to manage these expectations. Recall his speeches at the swearing in, and after that time.
Tucker: The medial literally LOVES Obama - the media is part of the hype machine.
Tucker: Recall that the New Deal failed in pulling America out of the depression. How many years passed before the stock market recovered? Unemployment was resolved by World War II!
Paul: We disagree on that one. HOLD on here: WWII was the largest government rescue plan in US history. Many Republicans favor "do nothing" as the tool to "de-leverage" America. But America, voted against that do nothing approach.
Tucker: So, this situation is resolved by elections? Tyrants get elected!
Tucker: Obama's biggest problem will NOT be Republicans, but his fellow Democrats. He's on the road today to battle the "pork bill" label that some have given the current plan.
Paul: one person's stimulus is another person's pork, I suppose . . .
Tucker: I'd love to know how museums, etc., will pull the economy out of this. How can "any" money spent be stimulation?
Paul: we have a crisis of confidence. Regulation will happen as a means to help boost confidence. However, nothing going on right now is addressing this.
Tucker: I agree, to some extent, regulation helps confidence. But that depositors are afraid of their banks is not new - my father worked at an S&L in the '80s. Every administration boasts of home ownership, which translated into pressure on regulators to loosen standards. This is complicated.
Paul: OK, I agree on that one.
Paul: Each incoming administration tends to throw out the baby with the bath water. Bush focused on Russia when he came into the office. In contrast, Obama is not throwing out the baby with the bath water - he has kept several Bush people on his team. This is extraordinary.
Tucker: Obama has a conservative streak in him. Good for him. America does not want wholesale change. The truth is . . . Obama gets elected and then reads the briefings, and then he gets more realistic.
Paul: As to jobs, we are in a collapse, with extraordinary acceleration of job loss. Outside of DC, people are very, very concerned about the economy. But in DC, Karl Rove says job loss is not bad.
Tucker: My concern is not whether Obama is decent or without talent. My problem is economic theory: you want to get rich, you produce things other people pay you for. This is foreign to Obama. He thinks that throwing tax money will somehow cause the economy to get stronger.
Paul: (on the role of the media) Remember, the media hated Reagan, and the country loved the Gipper; and the media wanted Clinton impeached, and the country loved him.
Tucker: I love the print media - it is thoughtful and informed. On the other hand, the TV media (and particularly cable TV), is all about entertaining and rating points. The TV media does NOT understand the issues. The print media does.
I hope this has been an interesting, even entertaining, to you as it has been here at the Opening Session.
