Into the Looking Glass: Will the Next Dagger Be Loss Rates at Regional and Local Banks?
Last Thursday, the Joint Economic Committee of our U.S. Congress heard testimony calling for the "return" of the CMBS market as a means to promote the recovery of the U.S. commercial real estate finance markets. Attached (PDF) is the testimony of Richard Parkus (who, of course, expressed his personal view and NOT those of his employer). (His employer only paid him to do the research; the analysis is just a hobby!)
I agree with him: we do need the commercial real estate finance markets to "return" or at least improve. OK, even to simply turn on.
We've heard or read most of his testimony before from other sources - including the large percentage of total losses in CMBS (he says between 9-12%, or about $65-$90 billion), with the highest looses in 2005-2007 commercial mortgage loans placed in CMBS pools.
Interesting, but "old" news by now. Maybe even dull since many of those CMBS loans merely are being extended.
More startling to me is that he actually articulated exactly what I've been expecting: it's all about commercial real estate exposure at the regional and local banks.
Parkus reminded the committee that banks own @ 50% of all commercial real estate. (Note: the Mortgage Bankers Ass'n has great information on all of this.)
So, what about the banks?
On the topic of construction loans
- "Moreover, exposure to construction loans rises rapidly as one moves from large money center banks to smaller regional and local banks - the four largest US banks have an average exposure of less than 2% of total assets, while the 31-100 largest banks have an average exposure of about 12%" (Wow).
- "In my view, losses on construction loans are likely to be in excess of 25%, possibly well in excess, which will imply losses of at least $140 billion. This, of course, will be disproportionately borne by regional and local banks" (Wow, again).
On the topic of core commercial real estate loans
- "The four largest banks have an average exposure of 3-4% to commercial real estate loans, while smaller regional banks have an exposure of 15-20%" (I'm catching a trend here).
- " . . . loss rates on core commercial real estate loans in bank portfolios . . . will imply losses of at least $120-$150 billion on banks' core commercial real estate portfolios" (Oh, no).
Parkus' main point is that the CMBS market must be revived (OK, that's his employer speaking).
More perceptive to me is his articulation of the extremely dire, even horrible, condition of the real estate portfolios of regional and local banks. He gets it.
The tough times might not even have arrived - the residential sub prime thing could just be the first course.
If you're experienced in workouts, many a meal could be coming your way from your regional or local bank.
Please post your thoughts or comments.