(This is the last in a series covering the MBA-CREF convention. In contrast to the first two days [link Day 1] [link Day 2] and our convention "preview" [link], this last posting focuses on the two polar extremes of the convention, and the industry.)
For Chris Nixon [link to bio] and myself, day 3 of the MBA-CREF convention (yesterday, Weds.) was filled with meetings with significant industry players from two distinct groups: special servicing and life insurance companies.
We listened for the answer to one specific question from each group, which for us (and perhaps for you) is “the” question.
- Special servicing: what tips or advice can you give a borrower in 2010?
- Life insurance company: will your loan allocations differ from your 2009 performance? (Read: will we see any “improvement” over 2009?)
Here is our summary of the answers given to us.
Special Servicing Tips
Not surprisingly, the tips were very similar to those articulated at the recent CMSA January Conference [link to 2nd day posting]. However, we heard enough “new” or different answers to craft an expanded list of tips.
True, the answers vary depending upon the particular servicer, the project, the carveout sponsor, the tenants, etc.
But putting it all together, here are the tips:
Do This:
- be nice
- send all information in; be open and transparent
- sign a pre-negotiations agreement
- keep paying cash flow
- have a reasonable, cogent plan BEFORE you contact the lender or servicer (show us that you are in a good city\market, with good tenants, good DSC, etc.)
- show up with $ (to right size the loan) when you ask for a debt restructure
- default with dignity (i.e., have a "real" default and then be truthful)
Do NOT Do This:
- tell lender or servicer that you're "partners"
- show up with a sham balance sheet
- stiff or abuse your other lenders and the expect us to expect otherwise
- tell lender or servicer that you're a good borrower
- "fish" for information or for terms of a plan that will be acceptable
- cry
- hold lender or servicer hostage
- ask for any of the cash flow (nor a cash flow mortgage)
- fly in on a private jet
- offer a bribe
- rob Peter to pay Paul
- launch off on a religious sermon (caveat: "the special servicer knows that it is going to Hell – every day is Hell")
- ask for any return on the new equity infusion made in borrower
(For our other postings on CMBS special servicing, use the “search” function on the right side – and search terms such as “special servicing.’)
Life Company Loan Allocations for 2010 (& comparison to 2009)
The message generally was consistent from all our life insurance company contacts:
- in 2009, roughly 30%-45% of the allocation was utilized to refinance the “best” loans\relationships in the portfolio
- in 2009, not all of the allocation was utilized . . .
- but since corporate spread have dramatically dropped in the last 6 months, mortgages are a relative good investment; so . . .
- there is hope that the mortgage allocation will be fully funded in 2010 . . .
- however, probably the same percentage of the allocation (30%-45%) will be utilized to refinance the “best” loans\relationships in the portfolio . . .
- and, the allocation amount is not near the level seen during recent years
- the limited funds available for new loans will target the narrow bandwidth of the best projects and sponsors (high Debt Service Coverage or DSC; good Loan to Value or LTV; good balance sheet of the sponsor; good tenants; good market position; etc.)
- since large loans to single-sponsor borrowers (and not multiple loans to different sponsors) typically fit this narrow bandwidth, 2010 could be the year of the large loan for many life insurance companies
Add all of this up, and it is clear that with a muted allocation amount and the commitment to utilize a significant part of it to refinance the current portfolio, the total amount of credit available for 2010 from life companies is small (relative to demand).
The story here reminds me of the message from the CMSA January Conference: the recent CMBS issuances are good news for Wall Street but “no” news (i.e., no help) for Main Street.
The same should be said of the Life Insurance Company mortgage loan allocations: it sounds good, but really?
So, the message from both the CMBS Conference and the MBA-CREF Convention sync very nicely. (As predicted in my earlier posting?) [link]
If the mantra during the ‘90s and ‘00s was “other people’s money” (or “commercial subprime”), the mantra for the new economy is “show me the hard equity” (or “real money for real people”).
Yes, we’re returning to real estate fundamentals.
And since a large percentage of CRE is over-leveraged (a condition that I call "subprime commercial"), we circle back to the tips on special servicing . . .
If you see it differently, or have something to add, please post a comment below.