Capital Market Scorecard: 2010 Outlook for Corporate Credit? Commercial Mortgages?
Standard & Poors is having a half day "Leverage Credit and Recovery Conference" on February 25 in NYC. In S&P's announcement of the conference, they summarize their 2010 outlook for leveraged credit:
It is Standard & Poor's view that, at the outset of 2010, speculative grade corporate credits present a mixed picture. Although market prices for both bonds and loans have recovered from their record lows at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009, we believe that credit risk remains a challenge. Borrowers face ongoing refinancing requirements and continue to concentrate at the lower end of the rating distribution at 'B' and 'CCC'. Ongoing growth in topline revenues and cash flow required for debt service remain elusive for many borrowers.
S&P definitely has at best a "guarded" outlook for corporate credit in 2010.
As to commercial mortgages, Chris Nixon and I are in Las Vegas for the Mortgage Bankers Association - Commercial Real Estate Finance convention. [link to conference book]
We'll see if the MBA has the same view of the CRE Capital Markets as we heard at the CMSA January Conference. [link to our 2nd day posting]
This I know already: our life insurance company contacts and mortgage banker contacts are sending fewer people to this event than last year, and have planned fewer, and much more "muted" parties and events.
Stay tuned over the next few days for our reports from Vegas.
If you have a particular comment, or question, for us to investigate as we attend the MBA-CREF conference, please post a comment.
